Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction skill in the CFSv2 coupled model: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution

Impact of Land Surface Initialization and Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the Prediction of the Indian Summer Monsoon with the CFSv2

The impact of initial land-surface states on monthly to seasonal prediction skill of the Indian summer monsoon (June–September) is investigated using a suite of hindcasts made with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) operational forecast model. The modern paradigm of land-atmosphere coupling is applied to quantify biases in different components of the land-atmosphere coupled system an...

Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon...

Relationship between ocean mean temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

M. M. Ali,* P. V. Nagamani,1 N. Sharma,1 R. T. Venu Gopal,2 M. Rajeevan,3 G. J. Goni4 and Mark A. Bourassa5 1Department of Space, National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, India 2Ministry of Earth Sciences, Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India 3Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India 4Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic...

Statistical Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Enduring Challenge